Is the Real Estate market bottom already in? Many real estate experts as well Wall Street analysts seem to think so. As we know, real estate markets are a local event. Many experts now think Southern California’s coastal areas may be at their bottom. Inland areas, generally more over built in the last few years, may take a little longer in recovering, due to longer commutes and impactful gas pricing on those outer areas along with the overbuilding and higher foreclosures of those areas. For larger Southern CA counties, expect Orange County home prices to bottom first as it is relatively built-out and has much fewer homes in the "stater" category. Expect Los Angeles or San Diego County home prices to hit bottom next, then most likely San Bernardino or Riverside areas, probably turning the 1st quarter of 2009.
Attractive, traditionally hight demand areas like Santa Barbara, in and around the city of Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara’s south county area, have already bottomed. Foreclosures for June 2008 have hit a fourteen month low, and that is for the entire Santa Barbara County real estate market. The minimally effected south Santa Barbara County real estate market immediately surrounding the city of Santa Barbara, has its median price off just 2% compared to 2007 thus far in 2008. We have directly been involved with 5 multiple offer negotiations on 5 separate properties in the last 3 months. That does not happen in a "falling" market. We talk to many potential buyers daily and some cite the -13% median price drop statistics reported for the entire Santa Barbara County real estate market area which includes Lompoc up to Santa Maria, the hardest hit areas of Santa Barbara county real estate where a glut of over building has hurt those areas. Conversely, the south Santa Barbara County real estate area is virtually built out with almost all buildable land already used up, unbuildable or dedicated as open space. With a consistent high demand to acquire homes in and around the city of Santa Barbara, prices remain stable and appreciation of south Santa Barbara county real estate is truly more reliable. Montecito real estate in particular has median pricing up 22% for 2008 through June.
The Ventura County home market seems near a price bottom as well.
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