Santa Barbara real estate market forecast stable and poised for strong surge in 2009

On September 18, 2008, Dr. Mark Schneipp, Economist of the California Economic Forecast made his annual presentation on the Santa Barbara County Real Estate & Economic Update. Here are the salient points in Dr. Schneipps forecast:
 
In Santa Barbara Real estate for sale, prices will stabilize in 1st Quarter 2009 with substantial accelerating growth in 2009 
 
Pent up Buyer demand, since late 2006 will rise sharply.
 
Santa Barbara homes sales stay somewhat muted for the balance of 2008 and begin increasing in the 1st Quarter of 2009,  sharply increasing Santa Barbara home sales are expected in the 2nd Quarter of 2009 and sales post a very sharp recovery after that, exhibiting a “V-shaped curve” strength in an already stable Santa Barbara real estate market in the south county.
 
As credit markets recover during the last quarter of 2008, job conditions will advance slightly, accelerating into 2009.
 
Notice of Defaults and foreclosures show to have peaked, signaling any Santa Barbara housing decline is over and selling values are unlikely to turn down from here, creating expansion in the Santa Barbara housing market.  
 
A rapid decline in foreclosures is obviously the signal to buyers that the Santa Barbara real estate market has bottomed.  A sharp recovery follows.
 
More job creation and growing population plus buyers who have stayed on the sidelines will boost the bounce back in 2009, signaling that now may be the last chance to find the “deals” all current Santa Barbara home buyers are searching for.
 
Less than 300 homes will be built in Santa Barbara real estate market this year.  The low number of homes started this year is unmatched.  Over 50 years records of new home construction in Santa Barbara County, show the rate for the first 7 months this year, is the lowest in history.
 
Montecito real estate is still strong. For January 2008 through August 2008, Montecito median home sales price is nearly $3.8 million, a year over year increase of +30.7%
 
The growth of the local Santa Barbara economy and Santa Barbara real estate market place is still upbeat
 
Commercial real estate vacancy rates in Santa Barbara are still tight and the market remains healthy.

FORECAST:  Santa Barbara homes sales will move up quickly as Notice of Defaults lessen, foreclosures crest and prices become stable. Buyers who have sat out waiting to buy will rush in with a corresponding rebound in sales in the 1st Quarter 2009, and increase in 2nd Quarter 2009.

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