Santa Barbara Area real estate values continue solid gains over national market

By Stephen Downarowicz • July 13th, 2007

Santa Barbara Real Estate market mid year forecast by Economist Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast

Economist Mark Schniepp who is the director of the California Forecast provided his Mid Year Economic Forecast on Santa Barbara area real estate yesterday.  Highlights of his speech are provided for your review. 

 The National Picture

"This coming Fall 2007 will  be the 2 year mark for the national housing slowdown which started in Fall 2005.  The housing market slowing was created nationally by a surplus of homes available for sale relative to demand from buyers.  It started with builders building too much, and has most recently been impacted by the subprime mortgage market."

Subprime analysts often fail to point out what a very small percentage of total homes these potential "foreclosure properties" represent. In the 2nd quarter of 2007, there was one foreclosure filing for every 429 households in the entire state of California or .002 percent. Hardly an impacting volume.

The Santa Barbara Picture

Santa Barbara has very little new housing development, with little area left to build and a slow growth municipal government, so over building is virtually impossible. Also, Santa Barbara property median price points are for the most part unattainable to the subprime buyer, so what litttle effect this segment truely has on the overall market place, it has a further minimumized impact in local markets, such as the Santa Barbara property market, due to the restrictive price points for subprime lending.  
In addition, the top 5% of the housing market, or the "luxury home" national market, continues its strength. The vast majority of Santa Barbara real estate would fit into this category.
There are currently less new listings of condominiums for sale than during 2006, so even this weak point in the Santa Barbara real estate market has strengthened over the last 3 months after being minimally off.
The high end or luxury Santa Barbara home market, defined as $3m and above has very little inventory, and continued strong buyer demand.  Homes that are well priced relative to comparable sales are selling quickly, often with multiple offers.  Highly priced homes relative to comparable properties are staying on the market longer.
Over the last 3-4 months we are seeing the number of sales, and the dollar volume of sales trending upwards.
 
# of Homes Sold
Selling Price
Santa Barbara
+10.0%
+4.2%
Montecito
+15.4%
+16.2%
Hope Ranch
+325.0%
+10.7%

The hot spots have consistently been in Montecito real estate and Hope Ranch real estate. 

Economist Mark Schniepp also forecasted no recession and lower interest rates for the remainder of the year. 

The Santa Barbara real estate and unique signature property market requires well informed and invloved local expertise that is essential for the finding, successful acquisition, sale, and value analysis of rare estate properties. Custom searches of Santa Barbara beach properties, estates, Montecito homes for sale or Hope Ranch real estate information are available at http://www.RareEstates.com, a fine home sale transaction network, having specialized local resources and knowledge of unadvertised luxury properties and qualified estate property investors searching for properties. For exclusive information about privately offered estate properties in the Montecito, Santa Barbara or Hope Ranch Marketplace please direct your inquiries here.

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